As we look ahead to the remainder of 2026 and the dynamics shaping the world in our Mid-Year Outlook, it’s clear that artificial intelligence, global fragmentation and inflation will continue to permeate economies and the markets.

Inflation, in particular, is all the more likely to re-settle at a stickier zone, potentially for years to come. Energy prices will likely command a more permanent geopolitical risk premium, while supply chains will be re-routed to guarantee national energy security—and not necessarily at the lowest possible cost. Even if inflation isn’t currently an outsized risk—it is becoming more of a factor. 

America’s tightrope walk

There is a renewed premium on bringing supply chains closer to…