One might consider it a success that the U.S. and Iran have managed to sit down at the negotiating table at all. At present, however, a quick agreement does not appear likely, even though neither side really has any interest in prolonging the conflict. As a result, geopolitical uncertainty remains high and the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Even if the strait were to reopen soon, we still expect it to take quite some time for production and supply capacities to return to pre-crisis levels. An average oil price for 2026 could thus hover around USD 100. 

One might expect markets to increasingly come to terms with the realization that the price effects of higher energy costs can no longer be classified as purely transitory, but are…