Donald Trump is heading to Beijing for a face-to-face meeting with Chinese President Xi Jinping on May 14-15, marking the first time during his current term that the two leaders will sit across from each other on Chinese soil. The agenda reads like a greatest hits album of geopolitical tension: trade imbalances, technology restrictions, Taiwan, and the US-led conflict with Iran.

Prediction markets are pricing a 94.3% probability that Trump actually makes the trip by the end of May 2026. For crypto investors, the more interesting number might be this: previous US-China de-escalations have historically bumped major token prices by 2-4% in the short term.

What’s on the table in Beijing

Trump’s trade agenda hasn’t…