Timing The Stock Market With The Inflation Rate: An Exit Signal For Stocks

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The inflation rate is the 12-month rate of change of the consumer price index which is provided by the Department of Labor Statistics.
The model was first described here in 2017 and showed the performance from 1953 to 2017. The model was subsequently enhanced to include that high-beta stock markets must perform better than low-beta stocks when re-entering the market. The Buy and Sell rules of the model, as implemented on Portfolio123, are:

  • Sell (SPY)…

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