If Reform is allowed to keep its new £72m war chest of new donations, how much impact will it have on how people vote? Maybe not much. But it doesn’t need to be much to alter the outcome of the next general election.

What follows are illustrations of small shifts in Reform’s support. My starting point is an MRP survey conducted shortly after Andy Burnham became prime minister. It was conducted by Convergent Opinion. Its overall voting figures are close to the current average: Labour 26%, Reform 23%, Conservative 21%, Lib Dem 11%, Green 10%. 

Its seat projection also looks sensible. Labour would be the largest party, with 245 seats; it would be 81 seats short of an overall majority. Reform would come second with 174 MPs,…