Bitcoin closed the worst half-year in its recent history near $60,000, down from $93,000 in January and fresh off a 21-month low, and almost none of the damage came from crypto itself. The Federal Reserve and record ETF outflows did it, and the same two forces meet again at the July 28-29 policy meeting that will likely decide whether the bottom is in or another leg waits below. These are the levels, the scenarios, and the honest case on both sides.