NVIDIA (NVDA) stock trades near $225, about 28.3 times its adjusted earnings over the past twelve months. Adjusted here means normalized net income with stock-based compensation added back, the same broad basis analysts use in their forecasts. For a stock near its 52-week high, that looks steep. But the multiple leaves out the growth analysts already expect, and that growth depends on how much NVIDIA can supply.

NVIDIA Looks Ordinary Once The Forecast Earnings Arrive

On the earnings analysts expect for fiscal 2027, the same price is about 24.1 times. On what they expect for fiscal 2028, it is about 14.5 times. The price is the same. The earnings analysts expect it to buy are not.

NVIDIA expects Vera Rubin, its newest…