On 3 July, ESMA
reminded the industry that a binary payout is a binary payout. Call it an event
contract, a prediction share, a forecast token. If the underlying question
touches anything in MiFID II’s Annex I, it’s a financial instrument, it’s a
derivative, and the 2018 retail ban on binary options applies. No new rules.
Just a regulator pointing at rules that have been sitting there for eight
years.

Meanwhile, 2,000
kilometres south, Valletta is drafting something very different. Economy
Minister Silvio Schembri says Malta is “actively exploring” a dedicated
framework for prediction markets. Prime Minister Robert Abela has pledged to
hand the Malta Gaming Authority the power to license the segment. If it lands,
Malta becomes…