Quick Read

• Prediction markets price roughly a 90% chance the Fed holds rates at the June 16-17 meeting, and J.P. Morgan projects no cuts through all of 2026, putting the next cut at least 12 to 18 months away.

• Bitcoin gained 44% in the 4-5 weeks before the first 2019 Fed cut on July 31, then fell roughly 45% over the five months after, marking the clearest case of crypto pricing in a rate cut long before the announcement.

• The September 2024 cut produced a 6.6% Bitcoin gain in the week after. But by December 2025, three cuts later, Bitcoin barely moved on the announcement. This shows each successive cut in a cycle produces less price reaction than the one before.

• Don’t wait: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just…