Key Highlights

• Alcoa shares fell 8.48% to A$81.87 on March 20, 2026, amid profit-taking and broader metals sector weakness despite strong aluminum price fundamentals
• Q4 2025 earnings beat expectations with $1.26 EPS vs. $0.99 consensus; revenue climbed 15% sequentially to $3.4 billion with $226 million net income
• San Ciprian smelter restart faces significant headwinds: facility projected to generate $75-100 million EBITDA loss in 2026, delaying cash neutrality to 2027
• Aluminum market structurally undersupplied with prices averaging $3,150-$3,400/tonne in H1 2026; global deficit estimated at 200,000 tonnes supports longer-term demand
• Consensus ‘Buy’ rating from 9 analysts with Citigroup…