Global trade is losing steam. The World Trade Organization’s Merchandise Trade Barometer fell to 101.7 as of June 5, down from 102.3 in January, signaling that the momentum powering international commerce is fading.

The reading still sits above 100, which is the long-term trend baseline. So trade isn’t contracting, it’s just cooling off.

From boom to moderation

Merchandise trade volume grew a robust 4.6% in 2025, a year turbocharged by insatiable demand for AI-enabling hardware. Semiconductors, servers, and telecom equipment were the stars, contributing to nearly half of the total merchandise trade expansion last year.

For 2026, the WTO projects that growth rate plummets to just 1.9%. That’s less than half…