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Why the Probability of Success Remains Low for the Western Digital-Kioxia Merger

Why the Probability of Success Remains Low for the Western Digital-Kioxia Merger

TradingKey – On July 21 ET, boosted by rumors that “Western Digital restarted merger talks with Kioxia,” Western Digital (WDC) saw its stock price surge 12.51% that day. The two sides had previously initiated merger negotiations, but contacts in 2021 yielded no results, and in-depth talks in October 2023 collapsed because SK Hynix (SKHY) opposed the deal.

The logic behind the merger is easy to understand. According to memory market report data for Q2 2026 published by Counterpoint, once Western Digital (usually counted as SanDisk (SNDK) in the flash memory market) and Kioxia merge, their NAND shipment market share will account for about 25%, not only surpassing SK Hynix (22%) in one move, but also directly matching and challenging…

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