The CME FedWatch tool now shows a 12.4% probability of a Fed rate hike at the April 29 meeting, a number that did not exist one week ago, while every rate cut bet for that meeting has dropped to zero.

The shift marks the fastest repricing of Fed rate expectations in years and carries direct consequences for Bitcoin and the broader crypto market, which spent months rallying on the assumption that rate cuts would arrive in 2026.

Fed Rate Hike Odds Erase the Bitcoin Bull Case for Rate Cuts

One month ago, the April FOMC meeting showed an 82.5% probability of rates staying at the current 350-375 basis point range and a 17% chance of a cut to 325-350. A Fed rate hike was not on the table.

As of March 22, the cut odds for the April meeting…