CME FedWatch odds for a September rate hike have surged past 66% after Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole speech and oil prices driven above $90 by the Iran conflict. Bitcoin is holding $78,000 after a 25% August rally, but the structural question remains unanswered: does ETF demand change what a rate hike does to crypto, or does it just delay the pain?
Summary
- CME FedWatch pricing shows a 66% probability of a 25 basis point rate hike at the September 15-16 FOMC meeting, up from 35% before Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole address.
- Barclays now forecasts two rate hikes in 2026, in September and December, reversing its earlier hold call and raising the terminal…
