Forecasting is a technique that uses historical data to make informed decisions about future events or conditions. It isn’t simply guessing. A tool for businesses and investors alike, forecasting takes expert analysis and applies complex models to allocate portfolios and budgets.

But just how reliable are these crystal ball-like predictions? After all, economists, investors, and financial planners frequently display a striking talent for mordant humor about the art of economic prediction. “The only function of economic forecasting,” the famed 20th-century economist John Kenneth Galbraith said, “is to make astrology look respectable.” Or, as an equally influential economist, Paul A. Samuelson, put it, Wall Street models “predicted…