Quick Read

• Cloture needs 60 votes and Republicans hold 53 Senate seats, so at least seven Democrats or independents have to cross for the CLARITY Act to survive the week.

• CLARITY needs 7 Democrats to cross party lines, yet Polymarket prices the bill becoming law in 2026 at only 21%.

• XRP’s funding rate read negative 0.0094% on September 12, the most negative since June 28, which means short holders are paying long holders and a passing vote would force those shorts to buy XRP back to close.

• Bitcoin survives every scenario as the least exposed to both votes, while Solana carries the most downside if the Fed hikes Wednesday.

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