Markets don’t lie. Autodesk (ADSK) trades around $235.03 today, but options on ADSK tell a deeper story about where it could go.

The options market is pricing a 68% chance ADSK closes between $155 and $355 over roughly the next year, a range of roughly -33.7% to +50.9% from today’s price. Flip that around and the tail risk becomes visible: a 16% chance ADSK lands below $155, and the same 16% chance it ends above $355.

That downside would be a massive drop. Smart money prepares for these swings in various ways; everyday ADSK holders need to know what risk they own. While we unpack the hidden risk using option IV below, understanding what drove ADSK stock price recently can provide much needed fundamental lens.