Cboe wants to bring back all-or-nothing options, a contract that pays a fixed amount if a condition is met and pays zero if it isn’t.

While that might sound like a small product refresh, the timing makes it hard to ignore. Prediction markets have trained a new retail reflex: turn a belief into a number that reads like odds, then buy or sell that number.

Cboe’s proposal to the SEC is an attempt to package that same instinct inside US exchange rules, clearing, and brokerage distribution.

However, it’s important to note that Cboe isn’t trying to replicate Polymarket feature-for-feature. The company is actually trying to compete for the same mental model with regulators watching: the simple yes/no frame, the single price, and the quick…