Vanguard’s Joe Davis on AI and the ‘Second Half of the Chessboard’
Vanguard’s top economist Joe Davis isn’t trying to alarm you. His latest forecast, on the other hand, should.
The company’s global head of investment strategy looked at the megatrends, ran the numbers, and found the status quo — namely, that interest rates and global GDP both come in at about 2% annually over the next decade — is in for major upheaval. That’s because of the massive global debt levels that could lead to higher interest rates and lower growth. The research found an 80% chance that bond yields will top 7% if deficits continue to rise. The good news is that an AI-driven productivity boom could supercharge the global economy and push through those debt headwinds. The outcome could all hinge on just how…
