The conflict set in motion by the October 7, 2023, Hamas attack on Israel has now drawn the United States and Iran into direct military confrontation, with consequences rippling into the portfolios of crypto investors watching Bitcoin’s every move.

US and Israeli airstrikes on Iran began on February 28, 2026. Since then, the conflict has followed a pattern of strikes, retaliation, brief pause, and repeat.

A ceasefire playbook that keeps failing

A two-week ceasefire was declared in early April 2026. A memorandum of understanding followed on June 14–17, 2026, brokered with involvement from mediating countries including Pakistan and Qatar. That, too, collapsed shortly after it was signed.

By July 2026, Iranian…