It’s been a terrific 12 months for the BP (LSE: BP) share price. The FTSE 100 oil and gas giant has rocketed 50% in that time, with dividends on top. That’s far better than I ever imagined when I bought the stock a couple of years ago. At the time, I wasn’t entirely convinced by the investment case at all.

I was worried about its awkward transition away from fossil fuels (and back again), and the impact of the climate debate. But I was also drawn by the dividend, which was above 6% at the time, and the low valuation. So what does the next year hold?

Right now, it’s hard to look past the war with Iran. That’s dominating the headlines, and investor sentiment towards BP. When…