After the longest shutdown in history, a 43-day stoppage that ended in November 2025, markets and lawmakers are now watching closely as a new funding deadline approaches.
As 2026 begins, fears of another shutdown, which were mounting, are easing, with prediction markets now showing a 26% chance of a U.S. government shutdown in January.
Funding Law Reduces the Risk
One major reason behind this calm is a funding law passed in 2025, often referred to as the One Big Beautiful Bill Act. This legislation has already covered most federal spending needs through September 2026, with around 85% to 95% of expenses pre-funded.
Because of this, many government programs no longer depend on short-term funding bills. This lowers the risk that large parts…
