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TSMC Price Prediction: One Number Could Define the Stock’s Next Move

TSMC Price Prediction: One Number Could Define the Stock’s Next Move

TSMC is up over 66% in the past year, AI customers are booking capacity years out, and the only foundry rival is hemorrhaging billions. So why does one critical number still cast doubt on how high this stock can actually…

TSMC has become the linchpin of the global AI buildout, and the market has priced it accordingly. But one number matters more than any other right now: the gap between where the stock trades and where our model says it should trade over the next 12 months.

Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing (NYSE:TSM | TSM Price Prediction) is currently at $428.29, and our 24/7 Wall St. price target for TSMC is $492.37, implying 14.96% upside. Our rating is buy with high confidence (0.9).

An infographic with a dark background titled 'TSM • NYSE 12-Month Price Prediction'. The 'THE CALL' section shows a current price of $428.29, with a large green arrow indicating a price target of $492.37, a +14.96% upside, and a 'RECOMMENDATION: BUY' with 'CONFIDENCE: HIGH (0.9)'. The 'HOW WE GOT THERE' section displays a methodology flow: Trailing P/E-Based Price $428.29, Forward P/E-Based Price $352.06, Analyst Consensus $552.38, leading to a Pre-Adjustment Price of $427.40. The 'OUR ADJUSTMENTS' section shows the Pre-Adjustment Price $427.40, a 247FACTOR of 1.152x (Technology Sector Momentum, Strong Analyst Consensus, Earnings Growth), and the Final Price Target $492.37. The 'BULL CASE' lists: AI megatrend demand, Raised 2026 Capital Budget ($60B-$64B), and a Bull Case Price Target: $525.08. The 'BEAR CASE' lists: Gross-margin compression (2nm ramp & overseas fabs), Geopolitical Risk (Taiwan-Strait), and a Bear Case Price Target: $413.79. 'THE BOTTOM LINE' reiterates 'BUY PRICE TARGET: $492.37 (+14.96%)' and states 'TSMC is the linchpin of global AI buildout, with strong demand visibility.'

24/7 Wall St.

24/7 Wall St. Price…

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