It’s that time of year again. Pundits are busy predicting whether hospitality transactions will rise or fall. No one knows for certain, though everyone seems to have an opinion. 

I’m not a forecaster. I’m an operator with a bad habit of investing when I see a good situation. For the past several years, those situations have been scarce. 

At a fundamental level, hospitality economics have been out of alignment: interest rates remain elevated, cap rates stubbornly low and RevPAR growth anemic. Those conditions made it difficult to justify new investment, let alone generate attractive risk-adjusted returns. 

That said, I believe 2026 may mark an inflection point. 

Over the past 18 months, rates have…