The odds of Congress passing the crypto regulation bill, the Clarity Act, are down to a coin toss. The bill would distinguish digital commodities and securities, and its fate will likely be decided in the next few weeks. When that happens, it will probably determine whether the crypto bear market ends this year or extends into 2027.

Let’s game out a couple of scenarios to describe what could happen.

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What the bill does

Though they’re much clearer than in yesteryear, U.S. crypto rules today are a patchwork of enforcement actions and interpretive releases that a future administration could rewrite on a whim.

The Clarity Act would create a framework and make it into statute, sorting tokens into three buckets:…