It can be fun to see what the general sentiment is about the odds of an asset you own reaching a flashy price target. In that vein, on Polymarket, a major prediction market, the crowd as I write this is predicting that by the end of March 2026, Bitcoin (BTC 1.38%) has just a 1% chance of being priced at $150,000 or more. The odds also look quite poor for it to hit that same milestone by Dec. 31, at 11%.

Those probabilities might be right, or they might be wrong. Here’s what I predict is going to happen next.

Image source: Getty Images.

Price predictions can be right for the wrong reasons

Prediction markets are all the rage these days, but it’s important to recognize that they aren’t oracles.

Sure, they’re effective at aggregating…