Strategy is bouncing, and it doesn’t change the picture. traded near $117.70 in early action Thursday, up about 2% from Wednesday’s $115.35 close, tracking ‘s intraday lift off the lows. But the stock sits just $13 above its 52-week low of $104.17, down roughly 37% over the past month and about 70% over the past year from a high of $457.22 set last July. The 2% green candle is noise against a chart that has been cut by nearly three-quarters.

The reason this matters more than any single session is structural, and it is the thesis of this entire forecast: the premium-to-net-asset-value flywheel that powered Strategy’s rise has broken. For years the company traded at a fat premium to the Bitcoin on its balance sheet, which let it issue…