Four teams. One trophy.

As of July 12, 2026, The Athletic’s statistical models give Spain a 30% chance of lifting the World Cup and a 50% chance of reaching the final. That makes Spain the clear frontrunner heading into the semifinal stage, ahead of France and Argentina, who round out the field of contenders.

The Athletic’s projections are built on over 100,000 simulations, running each remaining matchup through a statistical engine that weighs recent form, squad depth, and historical tournament performance. Spain wins most often.

How the numbers shake out

A 30% win probability sounds modest until you consider that it’s spread across four teams. If the odds were perfectly equal, each team would sit at 25%….