Wall Street just handed SpaceX a new price target, and the case behind it comes down to a single technical challenge rather than the company’s rockets, satellites and AI ambitions combined. If Elon Musk solves it, the upside case gets much bigger. If he does not, so does the risk.

The call adds another data point to a stock that has swung wildly since its record-breaking debut earlier this year, and it arrives just as investors are still digesting a mixed quarterly report that left the bull and bear cases equally intact.

Pivotal Research bets SpaceX’s future on Starship reusability

Pivotal Research initiated coverage of SpaceX on September 8, with a Buy rating and a $220 price target, which…