Key Takeaways

• Headline revenue comparisons mislead: Block’s $6.1 billion quarterly revenue looks dominant over Shopify’s $3.2 billion, but Block keeps less than half of it as gross profit, the number that actually drives profitability.
• Shopify stock is growing gross profit at 32% year-over-year versus Block stock’s 27%, with Wall Street pricing in 31% upside for Shopify against 21% for Block.
• TIKR’s model targets approximately $294 for Shopify stock and approximately $153 for Block stock by end of 2030, a 6-point IRR gap that makes Shopify the higher-conviction setup from current prices.
• The key risk in Shopify stock is AI-channel disruption threatening storefront attach rates; the key risk in Block stock is Cash…