Strategy’s Bitcoin conviction is facing its toughest test yet as the crypto market enters a prolonged downturn.

On prediction market Myriad, owned by Decrypt’s parent company, DASTAN, users now see a 36% likelihood that the Bitcoin treasury firm will sell some of its BTC holdings before year-end, up from 22% at the start of the week.

The bearish shift comes as Bitcoin plunged below key support levels to trade at $76,039—just below the average purchase price of Strategy’s Bitcoin holdings. The cryptocurrency is down 2.9% in the past 24 hours, 15.4% over the past week, and 18.1% over the past month, according to CoinGecko data.

Bitcoin is now down about 40% from its October peak of $126,080, with Myriad users assigning a…