Rivian’s stock (RIVN) is 1.8% lower today at $14.50 ahead of earnings, after a dramatic start to the year that has seen a 25% decline, and $6B in market cap erased.

The quarter provides the read on demand dynamics following the expiration of the $7,500 federal EV tax credit and establishes the baseline for R2 launch execution beginning in the first half of 2026.

Consensus sits at $1.26B revenue and a $0.71 adjusted loss per share, representing a 27.4% revenue decline year-over-year and a 32.7% improvement in losses, creating asymmetric risk tied to whether the company achieved its full-year adjusted EBITDA loss guidance of $1.7B to $1.9B and maintained “modest” gross profit.

The setup reflects a demand pull-forward dynamic…