Russian President Vladimir Putin announced a unilateral two-day ceasefire in the Russia-Ukraine conflict. The ceasefire, running from May 7 to May 8, was framed around security concerns ahead of Russia’s Victory Day celebrations on May 9.

Crypto markets responded with a modest exhale. Bitcoin climbed 1.2% to $68,400, while Ethereum ticked up 0.8% to $3,200.

A ceasefire in name only

Ukraine accused Russia of violating the agreement with strikes on Kharkiv on May 8.

Polymarket, the blockchain-based prediction platform, reflects skepticism in hard numbers. The odds of a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire holding through June 30, 2026, actually dropped to 8.5% from 10% around the time of the announcement. Informed bettors are…