Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT | MSFT Price Prediction) just wrapped a fiscal year where Azure crossed $100 billion in annual revenue and Microsoft 365 Copilot passed 30 million paid seats.

Yet the stock is essentially flat on the year, down 0.23% YTD and 6.91% over the past year. Shares closed at $480.35. Can Microsoft hit $650 by August 2027? Here is the math and where Wall Street is under-modeling the story.

What’s Holding Microsoft Back Right Now

The disconnect is capex fatigue overwhelming otherwise strong fundamentals. Microsoft committed $115.95 billion in FY2026 capital expenditures, up 79.62% year over year, and management guided FY27 capex to roughly $175 billion after a…