Microsoft (NASDAQ:MSFT | MSFT Price Prediction) just closed the biggest fiscal year in its history. Annual revenue crossed $331 billion, up 18%, and Azure alone surpassed $100 billion, up 41%. Yet shares sit at $491.71, essentially flat on the year, with a YTD gain of just 2.32%. That is the disconnect.

The question I want to answer: can MSFT actually reach $650, and if so, when?

Why Microsoft Shares Have Lagged the AI Story

The lag comes down to the bill, not the business fundamentals. Full-year capital expenditures ran $115.9 billion, up 79.62%, and management guided FY27 capex to roughly $175 billion. Investors have been rerating the AI trade, and Microsoft, with a beta of 1.099, took the hit. Shares are down 1.68% over one…