Crypto bulls have been pushing for Congress to pass a major piece of legislation aimed at creating a regulatory framework for the industry, but prediction markets say don’t count on it this year.

Traders on Polymarket give it only a 15% chance of being signed into law in 2026. Traders on Kalshi have laid similar bets.

Donald Trump, who’s financial disclosures show that his personal crypto profits reached $1.2 billion in 2025, has been advocating for lawmakers to get the bill passed, and industry group have been actively lobbying for it this year.