Microsoft (MSFT 2.28%) had a strong 2025, rising from about $420 per share at the start of 2025 to around $490 by December. That’s about a 17% return, making it a strong stock pick in normal years. However, the S&P 500 (^GSPC +0.19%) also had a great year, rising around 18%. This means that Microsoft’s stock lost to the market despite an impressive year.
Looking ahead to 2026, will Microsoft be able to outperform the market? Or will it be another year of market-matching to market-losing performance? Let’s figure out what Microsoft’s stock price could be to end 2026, and see if that will be good enough to beat the market.
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