Two years ago, it seemed like nobody wanted to touch Intel (INTC -28.58%). The company that basically invented the modern chip industry had turned into its own cautionary tale, posting an $18.8 billion net loss for 2024 while it fell behind Nvidia in artificial intelligence (AI) and behind Taiwan’s foundries in manufacturing.

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Then something strange happened. The U.S. government bought a stake in Intel. So did Nvidia. So did SoftBank. Companies and governments don’t usually hand over billions to a business they think is finished, and that’s the real reason I think the next 14 months matter more for this stock than almost any stretch in Intel’s recent history.