Prediction markets tend to show how a small crowd of people feel about the odds of outcomes happening at a given moment, which makes them a very unreliable guide for what will actually occur. For instance, in February, the odds on Polymarket were that the Clarity Act, the crypto market structure bill, had an 82% chance of being signed into law this year.

But on Sept. 15, the Senate blocked the bill, and now its path to passage in 2026 looks very, very slim. That failure was a bit dispiriting for the crypto market, especially for holders of Ethereum (CRYPTO: ETH), Solana (CRYPTO: SOL), and XRP (CRYPTO: XRP), as the Act aimed to codify rules pertaining to them.

Missed AI’s “Act 1”? Act 2 Could Be 15x…