Per CoinGecko’s 2026 Q2 Crypto Industry Report, prediction markets, where people trade contracts based on real-world outcomes like elections and sports, saw $113.8 billion in volume in the second quarter of this year, up by a whopping 48.7% from Q1. During the same three months, spot trading volume on the top 10 centralized crypto exchanges fell by 27.9%, and prices of leading assets like Ethereum (ETH +3.92%) shed 25.4%, with Bitcoin (BTC +1.15%) faling 14.2%.

Is this a case of unlucky timing for crypto, or is there a deeper problem?

Image source: Getty Images.

This dynamic isn’t what it appears to be

The prediction market Kalshi’s share of outcome markets volume climbed from 42.4% in Q1 to 58.9% in Q2, while Polymarket saw its…