The first week of November carries both US jobs reports, two ISM surveys and a midterm election. On 28 September we measured the jobs reports and made two claims. Here is how they held up, and the week ahead.
How we measure it
For each release, take the hour it lands in and measure that hour’s move, open to close, as an absolute percentage. Divide by the coin’s median hourly move over the same window. 1.00 means the release hour looked like any other hour. BTC, ETH and SOL, 12 August 2025 to 14 October 2026, every US release TradingView flags high, each hour counted once.
What we said, and what happened since
Payrolls: we said it had never had a quiet hour, 12 of 12 above an ordinary hour. It printed again on 2 October and moved 1.84 times….
