Ultra‑short crypto bets on Polymarket and Kalshi now drive most crypto volume, blurring hedging and gambling as AI bots, HFT firms and retail chase five‑minute wins.
Summary
- Polymarket and Kalshi list five‑ to 15‑minute “up‑down” contracts on BTC, ETH and other coins that already account for more than half of their crypto trading.
- Retail users lean on AI agents to scrape data and output odds, while HFT firms exploit latency gaps and rich fees as platforms tweak microstructure to curb bots.
- Regulators still call these tools “hedging” and “portfolio management,” but critics – including Vitalik Buterin – warn prediction markets are drifting into pure…
