October Monthly Investment Strategy – A far-reaching US election
“Remember, remember the fifth of November”
The US election is just weeks away. It is difficult to escape its shadow, not just for US activity and financial markets, but for the rest of the world. That shadow spreads more vividly as developments have seen Vice President Kamala Harris start to lose momentum in recent weeks: a mild narrowing of her lead at national levels and a more distinct reversal of polling leads in the key battleground states – albeit to levels below polling error margins. These subtle shifts have triggered moves in betting markets to see Donald Trump as the likely victor. Financial markets have followed. To us, polls are still on a knife-edge, but the balance of risk feels like it has…
