Management’s own plan leans on lower costs, a slower decline rate, and a stronger balance sheet, not on the price of crude.

Occidental Petroleum (OXY) moves in bursts: the stock has gained more than 30% inside two months on eight separate occasions since 2010, the earliest of them in 2011, and four of those runs cleared 50%. It is up 42.8% over the past twelve months and sits about 7% below its 52-week high. The strongest case for the next leg, though, barely involves the oil price.

A Four Billion Dollar Plan Built On Costs, Not Barrels

Management has laid out a path to add more than $4 billion of annual sustainable cash flow by 2030, measured against 2025, and roughly 85% of it is expected to be delivered…