North Korea’s Lazarus Group has been linked to two crypto exploits this month: the $285 million Drift Protocol attack and the $292 million KelpDAO breach, which together account for 75% of all crypto thefts in 2026 so far. The market predicting another $100M+ hack by December 31 sits at 100% YES.

Market reaction

Trading volume in the market is effectively zero, but not from disinterest. With odds locked at 100% YES, there is no reason to trade unless some unexpected security shift changes the calculus. Buying YES at 100¢ pays $1, meaning no upside remains.

Why it matters

Hacks have occurred every 2.9 days this year. The Lazarus Group’s two April attacks alone total $577 million, and their involvement points…