Space Exploration Technologies (SPCX +7.36%) is one of the more attention-grabbing stocks on Wall Street and Main Street. Wall Street analysts are generally bullish on the stock, with an average price target of $223 per share for the recent IPO. That’s about 40% above its current share price. Retail shareholders bought a lot of stock early on, but recent selling has left retail inflows into SpaceX at about $3.4 billion.

Despite investor optimism, I think most are overpaying for the stock. To be sure, SpaceX could become a transformational business across multiple industries, generating unparalleled revenue growth. But the market is pricing the stock as if Elon Musk‘s trillion-dollar revenue projection for 2030 is an eventuality, not a…