There is a quiet confidence in Morgan Stanley’s latest note on Applied Materials. Not the loud kind that makes bold promises. The measured kind that says, “We have seen this before, and we think we know how it ends.”

The bank raised its price target on Applied Materials (AMAT) to $454 from $432, maintaining its overweight rating, ahead of the company’s May 14 earnings report. The framing in the note is deliberate. Morgan Stanley called the January quarter print “a leap in the right direction.” It is now calling the upcoming print “a second leap.”

The 58-year-old is the second-largest supplier of semiconductor equipment in the world, based on revenue, behind Dutch company ASML. On May 5, it surged 4.97% to $410.82 and was…