Investors heading into the second half of 2026 face a complex market landscape where artificial intelligence growth is expected to drive returns, even as geopolitical tensions and persistent inflation create substantial headwinds. A survey of 33 strategists at Natixis Investment Managers released on July 15 found that 91% believe AI will be the key factor driving market performance in the second half of the year, despite ongoing U.S.-Iran conflict, volatile energy markets, and inflation concerns.

The optimism around AI carries significant caveats. Of the Natixis strategists surveyed, 88% expect productivity gains from AI to translate into higher corporate profits, yet 79% warn that volatility driven by AI fears will persist and…