Major ASX listed miners overvalued
The iron ore price is up on last quarter as China’s imports remain strong despite its steel production falling below 1 billion metric tons in 2025 for the first time since 2019. Its anti-involution campaign is reducing overcapacity, mainly via the closure of smaller, less efficient steelmakers.
Why it matters: We update our iron ore miners for our latest commodity price assumptions.
- We now assume iron ore averages about USD 100 per metric ton from 2026 to 2028 based on the futures curve, up from around USD 95. After rolling forward our midcycle price to 2030, from 2029, we assume around USD 75 then based on our estimate of the long-run marginal cost of production.
The bottom line: Higher near-term iron ore and copper prices drive no-moat…
