More than half of the ether perpetual futures volume CoinDesk sampled on Kalshi between September 17 and 20 came from trades worth almost exactly $5,499. Kalshi became the first US exchange to offer CFTC-approved crypto perpetual futures in June, and for a new market, trading volume is the headline number that proves people want the product. Here’s what the data shows, the simple test anyone can use to judge exchange volume, and what we think is really going on.

First, What’s a Perpetual Future?

A perpetual future, or “perp,” is a bet on where a crypto price is heading that never expires. You can go long (betting the price rises) or short (betting it falls), often with leverage, which means borrowing to make a bigger bet than your…